US dollar gains ahead of the FOMC minutes
The Japanese yen rose slightly against the USD after a set of mixed economic data. In March, the core machinery orders rose by 3.8%, which was higher than the expected decline of -0.7%. In February, the machinery orders had risen by 1.8%. On an annualized rate, the core machinery orders declined by -0.7%, which was better than the expected decline of -3.4%. The country’s trade deficit was Y0.11 trillion, which was better than the expected Y0.12 trillion. This deficit was driven by a 2.4% decline in exports and a 6.4% increase in imports.
Sterling continued declining after a report said that Theresa May was considering a new vote that includes a second referendum. This will be the fourth attempt to have her deal passed by Parliament. However, her ten-point plan to build consensus in Parliament was declared dead on arrival by Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn. He said that the proposal was ‘repackaging of the same old bad deal’. At the same time, some conservatives called on May to resign immediately. Even after she leaves, it will be difficult for Parliament to find a consensus on the Brexit bill because of all the divisions. Later today, investors will receive the CPI data from the UK.
The USD index rose ahead of an important day for the market. Later today, investors will receive the minutes from the Federal Reserve. These minutes will provide information on what Fed officials are thinking about the economy and the current monetary policy. Meanwhile, traders will receive the crude oil inventories data. The inventories are expected to decline by 599K barrels after rising by 5.4 million barrels in the previous week.
The EUR/USD pair was little moved ahead of the FOMC minutes. It is now trading at 1.1160, which is 20 pips above yesterday’s low of 1.1140. On the hourly chart, the pair is along the 50-day moving averages and slightly above the 25-day moving average. The price is also along the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. In addition, the relative strength index is unchanged at 50. There is a likelihood that the EUR/USD pair will stay along these levels ahead of the FOMC minutes.
The USD/JPY pair declined slightly after mixed economic data from Japan. It is now trading at 110.50, which is along the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. On the hourly chart, the pair has been climbing since May 13. In this climb, the pair has created an ascending rectangular pattern. At the same time, the RSI has declined from the overbought level of 70 to the current low of 56. It’s likely that the pair will continue moving upwards.
The EUR/GBP pair has been moving on an upward trend since May 6. In this period, the pair has risen from a low of 0.8488, and today, it reached a high of 0.8790. On the four-hour chart below, this price is above all the key moving averages while the 14-day RSI has been weakening. The money flow index, which is a version of RSI that incorporates volumes has declined to the current low of 45. While the upward trend could continue, it’s likely that the pair could move slightly lower.